IMF: AI Could Add Nearly Half a Percentage Point to Annual Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Artificial intelligence could add nearly half a percentage point to annual economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa over the next decade if countries move quickly to improve electricity, connectivity, skills and institutional capacity, according to a new International Monetary Fund paper.

The IMF estimates that AI adoption could raise productivity in the region by between 0.2% and 2.1% over the next ten years. Under stronger adoption and enabling conditions, the gains could translate into roughly 4% cumulative GDP growth over the period.

The paper, Unlocking the Potential: AI in Sub-Saharan Africa, argues that the region’s main challenge is not technological disruption alone, but whether countries can adopt, adapt and scale AI fast enough to avoid falling further behind better-prepared economies.

Policy choices will determine the outcome

The IMF says the region’s AI trajectory is not predetermined. Under current conditions, unreliable power, limited digital infrastructure, scarce technical skills and weak regulatory capacity will constrain adoption and keep the gains modest.

But in a high-adoption scenario, faster diffusion across sectors and stronger enabling conditions could significantly increase productivity. The IMF says this would require deliberate investment in power, broadband, data infrastructure, human capital and institutions.

Agriculture, health and public services could benefit

The report identifies agriculture, education, healthcare and public administration as areas where AI could generate important development gains. It notes that low-cost mobile and SMS-based agricultural advisory tools have already produced double-digit improvements in yields and incomes in some African cases.

AI could also support domestic revenue mobilisation, customs administration, expenditure control and public-service delivery, where even modest efficiency improvements could have a meaningful economic effect.

AU strategy points in the same direction

The IMF’s recommendations broadly align with the African Union’s Continental Artificial Intelligence Strategy, which calls for an Africa-owned, people-centred and development-oriented approach built around infrastructure, skills, data, innovation and governance.

The AU has also urged member states to integrate AI into national development plans and build harmonised national strategies, while strengthening local innovation ecosystems and safeguards for responsible use.

Sources and references

• IMF: Unlocking the Potential: AI in Sub-Saharan Africa
• African Union: Ministers adopt Continental AI Strategy and African Digital Compact
• African Union: Continental AI Strategy implementation priorities