Africa’s Trade Hit Nearly US$1.5tn in 2025, But Deficit Widened to US$96.3bn

Towncrier Africa | Trade & Economy

Africa’s merchandise trade expanded by about 6.1 percent in 2025 to nearly US$1.5 trillion, but the continent’s trade deficit widened to an estimated US$96.3 billion, according to Afreximbank’s African Trade Report 2026.

The report shows that Africa’s merchandise exports grew by 6.2 percent to US$685.2 billion in 2025, while merchandise imports increased by about 6 percent to US$781.5 billion. The result was a larger deficit than the previous year, when Africa’s merchandise trade gap stood at about US$91.9 billion.

The figures capture both sides of Africa’s trade story. On one hand, the continent’s trade flows proved resilient in a difficult global environment marked by geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, supply-chain disruption and tight financing conditions. On the other hand, the deficit shows that Africa’s trade structure remains under pressure from high import bills, limited industrial depth and the continued need to export more value-added goods.

Afreximbank’s report, titled Leveraging Geopolitics for Trade and Industrialisation in Global Africa, says the increase in exports was supported by stronger prices for several non-energy commodities, including base metals, minerals and gold. Structural demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and industrial supply chains supported prices for some minerals, while demand for safe-haven assets contributed to higher gold prices.

Several major African economies also helped lift export performance. The report identifies Egypt, Morocco and South Africa as three of the five largest economies whose export growth contributed significantly to the continent’s overall export expansion. Together, these countries accounted for about 37 percent of Africa’s exports in 2025.

Yet the export recovery did not close the trade gap. Africa’s imports also rose, driven by high costs for fertilisers and food, increased demand for capital goods such as construction machinery and equipment for large infrastructure projects, and rising imports of solar panels as countries sought to reduce electricity deficits. Net oil importers contributed the most to Africa’s import bill during the year.

This pattern points to a deeper structural issue. Africa’s import demand is not simply a sign of consumer appetite; it also reflects the need for machinery, energy equipment, food inputs and industrial goods that many economies still do not produce at sufficient scale. Unless domestic and regional manufacturing capacity expands, higher growth can continue to translate into higher imports, widening external imbalances even when exports improve.

The report also highlights the continent’s persistent trade finance constraint. According to the African Development Bank’s annual survey cited by Afreximbank, Africa’s trade finance gap hovered around US$74 billion in 2025. Low foreign exchange liquidity and limited correspondent banking relationships continued to affect the ability of African exporters to secure the financing needed to compete in regional and global markets.

That financing gap matters because trade growth depends not only on demand and prices, but also on working capital, credit lines, guarantees, insurance and payment systems. Small and medium-sized exporters are especially exposed when banks are cautious, foreign exchange is scarce or cross-border settlement is difficult. Without stronger trade finance, Africa’s exporters may struggle to convert market opportunities into actual shipments.

Afreximbank’s findings also show that Africa remains a marginal player in world trade despite the 2025 improvement. The continent’s share of global trade hovered around 3.1 percent in 2025, up slightly from 2.9 percent in 2024, but still low compared with other developing regions. The report argues that this reinforces the need for bold national and continental policies to accelerate industrialisation, scale value addition, diversify sources of growth and deepen Africa’s integration into global value chains.

The policy implication is clear: Africa’s trade performance cannot be judged only by the size of the trade rebound. A nearly US$1.5 trillion trade year is significant, but a US$96.3 billion deficit points to the need for a different composition of trade. The continent needs more processed agricultural exports, manufactured goods, refined minerals, pharmaceuticals, machinery inputs, digital services and regional industrial supply chains.

The African Continental Free Trade Area is central to that shift. By creating a larger internal market, AfCFTA can help African producers achieve scale, source inputs regionally and build stronger value chains. But AfCFTA’s promise depends on practical execution: rules of origin, customs efficiency, logistics corridors, standards harmonisation, export finance and settlement systems that reduce the cost of trading across African borders.

The report’s broader theme is that geopolitics can be leveraged for African trade and industrialisation. Global supply chains are being reconfigured as companies and governments respond to conflict, tariff uncertainty, energy shocks and concerns over concentration risk. For Africa, this creates an opening to attract investment and expand production — but only if the continent moves beyond commodity dependence and builds competitive industrial capacity.

The 2025 numbers therefore tell a story of resilience, but also of unfinished transformation. Exports are rising. Imports are rising. Total trade is expanding. But the deficit is widening, trade finance remains constrained, and Africa’s global trade share is still small. The next phase of Africa’s trade agenda will be judged by whether the continent can convert trade growth into industrial depth, stronger firms, more jobs and greater control over its own value chains.

Source: Afreximbank, African Trade Report 2026: Leveraging Geopolitics for Trade and Industrialisation in Global Africa.